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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd