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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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