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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures show, according to a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, based on research carried out by a advocacy organization. That contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts studied information from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than lab figures, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are increasing, while lab-reported emissions are falling,” stated a senior analyst participating in the study. “This discrepancy is growing and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles travelled in battery mode relative to total distance. The team determined that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, while official assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab projections. That happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the distance covered in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several major carmaker groups to escape over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 extra annually in operating costs than is estimated under lab tests.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their PHEV cars are clearly far from the truth,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been brought again into policy discussions as automakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car sector and resistance from EU countries with large car industries.

Some senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a potential “compromise” solution to introduce in the legislation.

An independent energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the report a “very useful contribution” after years in which segments of the automotive sector claimed there was too little data to accurately assess actual emissions.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in lab and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for petrol or conventional cars,” the expert said. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and in the light of that evidence.”