Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
